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首页> 外文期刊>Oikos: A Journal of Ecology >Climate change and annual survival in a temperate passerine: partitioning seasonal effects and predicting future patterns
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Climate change and annual survival in a temperate passerine: partitioning seasonal effects and predicting future patterns

机译：温带雀形目的气候变化和年生存：划分季节影响并预测未来模式

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摘要

Predicting climate change impacts on population size requires detailed understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates, such as survival. This knowledge is frequently unavailable, even in well-studied taxa such as birds. In temperate regions, most research into climatic effects on annual survival in resident passerines has focussed on winter temperature. Few studies have investigated potential precipitation effects and most assume little impact of breeding season weather. We use a 19-year capture-mark-recapture study to provide a rare empirical analysis of how variation in temperature and precipitation throughout the entire year influences adult annual survival in a temperate passerine, the long-tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus. We use model averaging to predict longer-term historical survival rates, and future survival until the year 2100. Our model explains 73% of the interannual variation in survival rates. In contrast to current theory, we find a strong precipitation effect and no effect of variation in winter weather on adult annual survival, which is correlated most strongly to breeding season (spring) weather. Warm springs and autumns increase annual survival, but wet springs reduce survival and alter the form of the relationship between spring temperature and annual survival. There is little evidence for density dependence across the observed variation in population size. Using our model to estimate historical survival rates indicates that recent spring warming has led to an upward trend in survival rates, which has probably contributed to the observed long-term increase in the UK long-tailed tit population. Future climate change is predicted to further increase survival, under a broad range of carbon emissions scenarios and probabilistic climate change outcomes, even if precipitation increases substantially. We demonstrate the importance of considering weather over the entire annual cycle, and of considering precipitation and temperature in combination, in order to develop robust predictive models of demographic responses to climate change. Synthesis Prediction of climate change impacts demands understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates. In our 19-year mark-recapture study of long-tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus, weather explained 73% of the inter-annual variation in adult survival; warm springs and autumns increased survival, wet springs reduced survival, but winter weather had little effect. Robust predictions thus require consideration of the entire annual cycle and should not focus solely on temperature. Unexpectedly, survival appeared not to be strongly density-dependent, so we use historical climate data to infer that recent climate change has enhanced survival over the four decades in which the UK long-tailed tit population has more than doubled. Furthermore, survival rates in this species are predicted to further increase under a wide range of future climate scenarios.
机译：预测气候变化对人口规模的影响，需要详细了解气候如何影响关键的人口统计率，例如生存率。即使在经过深入研究的类群（例如鸟类）中，也常常无法获得此知识。在温带地区，大多数关于气候变化对常驻雀形目对年生存的影响的研究都集中在冬季温度上。很少有研究调查潜在的降水影响，并且大多数假设对繁殖季节天气的影响很小。我们使用了一项为期19年的捕获标记-捕获分析研究，对温度和降水量全年变化如何影响温带雀碱（长尾山雀Aegithalos caudatus）中成年的年生存率提供了罕见的经验分析。我们使用模型平均来预测长期历史生存率以及直到2100年的未来生存率。我们的模型解释了生存率年际变化的73％。与目前的理论相反，我们发现强降水效应，而冬季天气变化对成年年生存没有影响，这与繁殖季节（春季）天气最相关。温暖的春季和秋季增加了年生存率，而湿润的春天则降低了生存率，并改变了春季温度和年生存率之间的关系。几乎没有证据表明所观察到的人口规模变化具有密度依赖性。使用我们的模型估算历史生存率表明，最近的春季变暖导致生存率呈上升趋势，这可能有助于观察到英国长尾山雀种群的长期增长。预测未来的气候变化将在更大范围的碳排放情景和概率性的气候变化结果下进一步提高生存率，即使降水量大幅增加。我们证明了考虑整个年度周期中的天气以及综合考虑降水和温度的重要性，以便开发出针对气候变化的人口统计学预测模型。综合对气候变化影响的预测要求了解气候如何影响关键人口统计率。在我们对长尾山雀Aegithalos caudatus进行的为期19年的标记回收研究中，天气解释了成年存活率年际变化的73％。温暖的春季和秋季增加了生存，潮湿的春季减少了生存，但冬季天气影响很小。因此，可靠的预测需要考虑整个年度周期，而不应仅关注温度。出乎意料的是，生存似乎并不完全依赖于密度，因此我们使用历史气候数据推断出，最近的气候变化在英国长尾山雀种群增加了两倍以上的四个十年中提高了生存率。此外，在广泛的未来气候情景下，该物种的存活率预计将进一步提高。

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