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Tsunamis in the central part of the Caspian Sea

机译：在里海中部的海啸

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摘要

This paper describes the geotectonics of the Caspian Sea basin and the seismicity of its central part. The seismicity analysis enables us to identify the most probable zones of tsunami generation. We also present a brief review of the historical records of tsunamis in the Caspian Sea. In order to estimate the tsunami risk, we used the method of numerical hydrodynamic simulation while taking into account the real topography of the Caspian Sea. The computation of the wave field for the possible tsunamis occurring in the central part of the Caspian Sea allowed us to estimate the maximum expected heights of the waves along the coast of the CIS countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan). On the basis of the earthquake statistics in the region and the results of numerical experiments, we show that the extreme wave heights can reach 10 m at certain parts of the coast. Such extreme events correspond to extended (up to 200 km) seismic sources with M (S) similar to 8 and a recurrence period of T a parts per thousand 1600 years. The tsunami wave heights are expected to be as high as 3 m for sources of lesser extent (< 50 km) with earthquake magnitudes of M (S) similar to 7 and a recurrence period of 200 years.
机译：本文介绍了里海盆地的大地构造及其中心部位的地震活动性。地震分析使我们能够确定最可能发生海啸的区域。我们还简要介绍了里海海啸的历史记录。为了估算海啸风险，我们在考虑里海真实地形的同时使用了数值水动力模拟方法。对里海中部发生的可能海啸的波场的计算，使我们能够估算出独联体国家（俄罗斯，阿塞拜疆，哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦）沿岸海浪的最大预期高度。根据该地区的地震统计数据和数值实验结果，我们表明，沿海某些地区的极端波高可以达到10 m。此类极端事件对应于扩展的（长达200 km）地震源，其M（S）类似于8，重复周期为T千分之一1600年。对于较小范围（<50 km）的震源，海啸波高预计将高达3 m，M（S）的地震震级接近7，复发期为200年。

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