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首页> 外文期刊>Ostrich >The influence of sample size on the determination of population trends in the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni overwintering in South Africa
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The influence of sample size on the determination of population trends in the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni overwintering in South Africa

机译：样本数量对南非脆弱的小红est Falco naumanni越冬的人口趋势确定的影响

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摘要

Reliable measures of population sizes of endangered and vulnerable species are difficult to achieve because of high variability in population sizes and logistic constraints on sample sizes, yet such measures are crucial for the determination of the success of conservation and management strategies aimed at curbing declines in population size. In this study, we use bootstrap confidence intervals to assess the effects of sample size on the reliable determination of roost size in the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni overwintering at a large communal roost in South Africa. Using results from a unique five-season daily survey, we show that the currently recommended number of replicate sample counts (international action plan for the Lesser Kestrel) of three censuses per season is too low to reliably assess roost size. Bootstrap confidence intervals asymptote at 40-60 censuses per season, with 50 being the modal value. We recommend 50 censuses per season as the optimal sample size. We were also able to show that the population size of Lesser Kestrels at this roost significantly increased over each of the first four seasons of the study period and decreased slightly in the final season.
机译：由于种群数量的高度可变性和样本数量的后勤限制，难以实现对濒危物种和脆弱物种种群数量的可靠测量，但是这些措施对于确定旨在遏制种群减少的保护和管理战略是否成功至关重要尺寸。在这项研究中，我们使用引导置信区间来评估样本量对可靠地确定南非大型社区栖息地中脆弱的小红est Falco naumanni越冬的栖息地大小的影响。使用一项独特的五季每日调查的结果，我们表明，当前建议的每季三个普查的重复抽样计数（小红est的国际行动计划）数量太低，无法可靠地评估栖息地的规模。自举置信区间渐近线在每个季节40-60次人口普查中以50为模态值。我们建议每季进行50次人口普查作为最佳样本量。我们还能够证明，在研究期间的前四个季节中的每个栖息地，小龙虾的种群数量均显着增加，而在最后一个季节中则略有减少。

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