The forecast for fiscal year 1998 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is lowered 1.5 million tons from the previous August forecast to 29 million tons. With higher prices for wheat partially offsetting reduced wheat export volume, the value of wheat and flour exports was reduced only l00 dollar million to 4.5 dollar billion. Lower domestic ending stocks have resulted in higher wheat prices since August. U.S. wheat export volume is reduced due to greater than expected competition from Australia and Canada. The timely arrival of rains in Australia has resulted in an upward revision of that country's production and export estimates. The fiscal 1998 forecast for coarse grain exports is reduced 3.1 million tons and 600 dollar million from August's forecast to 55.1 million tons valued at 6.9 dollar billion. Although there were slight declines in corn and sorghum prices, most of the revision is due to reductions in corn export volume. The forecast for corn exports is reduced 3.5 million tons and 700 dollar million to 48.5 million tons valued at 6.1 dollar billion. U.S. corn export volume is reduced due to lower demand in Asia and increased competition from China's large corn exports (up 3 million tons since August) and feed wheat from Europe. Partially offsetting reduced corn shipments, barley export volume is raised 450,000 tons to 1.35 million tons. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. oilseed exports is raised 900,000 tons and 1.1 dollar billion from August's forecast to 37.1 million tons valued at 11 dollar billion. This improved outlook is due to stronger prices and increased export volumes for soybeans and products. The outlook for minor oilseed crops has improved as well. The soybean export forecast is increased 700,000 tons and 600 dollar million to 26.7 million tons valued at 6.7 dollar billion, while the shipment estimates for soybean meal and oil were each raised 100,000 tons. These upward revisions are due to rising foreign demand, especially from the European Union (EU) and China.
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