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首页> 外文期刊>SAE International Journal of Passenger Cars - Mechanical Systems >New Trial Analysis of Characteristics of Accidents and Traffic Violations by Elderly Drivers in Japan
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New Trial Analysis of Characteristics of Accidents and Traffic Violations by Elderly Drivers in Japan

机译：日本老年人驾驶事故和交通违章特征的新试验分析

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摘要

The number of elderly drivers is increasing in Japan and ensuring the safety of elderly drivers is becoming an important issue. The authors previously conducted an analysis of the characteristics of accidents and traffic violations by elderly drivers based on the number of accidents in which they were rear-ended. This method was used in order to exclude the influence of driving frequency. As a result of that analysis, it was found that the likelihood of violations committed by elderly drivers was not particularly higher than in other age groups, while the likelihood of accidents caused by them was higher. The risk of causing an accident was judged to be about two times higher in elderly drivers than in the 35-44 year age group. However, the methodology presupposed that collisions in which a driver is rear-ended are accidents that occur randomly, and that they occur with the same probability in each age group. To verify the results of that study, we attempted a new analytical method that uses the number of stop sign violations, which are considered to occur with the same probability among age groups, as an indicator of driving frequency in place of accidents in which a driver is hit from behind (rear-end collisions). In the new analysis the risk of causing an accident was judged to be 1.24 times higher in elderly drivers than in the 35-44 year age group. In general, the risk of accidents caused by elderly drivers is estimated to be lower than in the previous study.
机译：在日本，老年驾驶员的数量正在增加，并且确保老年驾驶员的安全成为重要的问题。作者先前根据年长驾驶员发生的事故数量，对老年驾驶员的交通事故和交通违法行为进行了特征分析。使用此方法是为了排除驱动频率的影响。分析的结果表明，老年驾驶员违规的可能性并不比其他年龄组高，而由他们引起的事故可能性更高。据判断，老年人驾驶者发生事故的风险大约是35-44岁年龄组的两倍。但是，该方法假定驾驶员追尾的碰撞是随机发生的事故，并且在每个年龄组中发生的可能性均相同。为了验证这项研究的结果，我们尝试了一种新的分析方法，该方法使用了违反停车标志的次数，该停车次数被认为在各个年龄组之间发生的可能性相同，以此作为驾驶频率指标来代替驾驶员的事故发生率。从后面被击中（后端碰撞）。在新的分析中，老年人驾驶者发生事故的风险被判定为35-44岁年龄组的1.24倍。通常，由老年驾驶员造成的事故风险估计要比以前的研究低。

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