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Safety-in-numbers: A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence

机译：数字安全：系统的证据审查和荟萃分析

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This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have estimated the relationship between the number of accidents involving motor vehicles and cyclists or pedestrians and the volume of motor vehicles, cyclists and pedestrians. A key objective of most of these studies has been to determine if there is a safety-in-numbers effect. There is safety-in-numbers if the number of accidents increases less than proportionally to traffic volume (for motor vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists). All studies reviewed in the paper are multivariate accident prediction models, estimating regression coefficients that show how the number of accidents depends on the conflicting flows (pedestrians, cyclists, motor vehicles), as well as (in some of the models) other factors that influence the number of accidents. Meta-analysis of regression coefficients involves methodological problems, which require careful consideration of whether the coefficients are sufficiently comparable to be formally synthesised by means of standard techniques of meta-analysis. The comparability of regression coefficients was assessed. It was concluded that a formal synthesis of regression coefficients in studies of the safety-in-numbers effect is defensible. According to a random-effects inverse-variance meta-analysis, the summary estimates of the regression coefficients for traffic volume are 0.50 for motor vehicle volume, 0.43 for cycle volume and 0.51 for pedestrianyolume. Estimates are highly consistent between studies. It is concluded that a safety-in-numbers effect exists. It is still not clear whether this effect is causal, nor, if causal, which mechanisms generate the effect. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：本文对研究进行了系统的回顾和荟萃分析，这些研究估计了涉及机动车和骑自行车的人或行人的事故数量与机动车，骑自行车的人和行人的交通量之间的关系。这些研究大多数的关键目标是确定是否存在数字安全效应。如果事故数量的增加少于与交通量成正比的数量（对于汽车，行人和骑自行车的人），那么就是安全数字。本文中回顾的所有研究都是多变量事故预测模型，其回归系数估计表明事故数量如何取决于相互冲突的交通流（行人，骑自行车的人，机动车）以及（在某些模型中）其他影响因素事故数量。回归系数的荟萃分析涉及方法上的问题，需要仔细考虑系数是否足够可比，以便通过荟萃分析的标准技术正式合成。评估了回归系数的可比性。结论是，在数量安全效应研究中，回归系数的正式综合是有道理的。根据随机效应反方差荟萃分析，交通量回归系数的汇总估计为：机动车量为0.50，自行车量为0.43，行人为0.51。研究之间的估计高度一致。结论是存在数字安全效应。尚不清楚这种影响是否是因果的，或者是否是因果的，尚不清楚是哪种机制产生了这种影响。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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