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Development of a quantitative risk assessment model for ship collisions in fairways

机译:航道船舶碰撞定量风险评估模型的开发

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This study develops a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the risk of ship being involved in ship collisions which takes into account the frequency and consequence of all possible accident scenarios. Two accident consequence types including human life loss and oil pollution which is measured in terms of the volume foil spilled are considered in this study. The proposed QRA model consists of a collision frequency estimation model, an event tree and consequence estimation models. The event tree comprises five intermediate events including ship type, ship size, loading condition, hull damage and survivability. Two "generic" mathematic models are developed to estimate the human life loss and oil pollution caused by ship collisions, respectively. A case study is finally created using the real-time ship movement data in the Singapore Strait from the Llyod's Marine Intelligence Unit (Lloyd's MIU) database. Results show that the container ship, bulk carrier and oil tanker are the three main ship types being involved in collision accidents. Although the passenger/RORO ship has the lowest frequency being involved in collisions, it will suffer the most serious consequence in terms of the human life loss once it is involved in an accident. Considering the relative high percentage of oil tankers involving in ship collisions and their severe consequences, focus should be placed on the tracking and management of oil tanker traffic. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:这项研究建立了定量风险评估(QRA)模型,以评估船舶卷入船舶碰撞的风险,其中考虑了所有可能发生的事故场景的频率和后果。本研究考虑了两种事故后果类型,包括人命损失和油污染,这是根据泄漏的铝箔量来衡量的。提出的QRA模型由碰撞频率估计模型,事件树和后果估计模型组成。事件树包括五个中间事件,包括船型,船型,装载状态,船体损坏和生存能力。开发了两个“通用”数学模型来分别估计船舶碰撞造成的人员伤亡和油污。最终,使用Llyod海洋情报部门(Lloyd's MIU)数据库在新加坡海峡的实时船舶移动数据创建了一个案例研究。结果表明,集装箱船,散货船和油轮是发生碰撞事故的三种主要船型。尽管客运/ RORO船舶发生碰撞的频率最低,但是一旦发生事故,它将对人类生命造成最严重的后果。考虑到涉及船舶碰撞的油轮比例较高及其严重后果,应将重点放在油轮运输的跟踪和管理上。 (C)2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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