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Using catastrophe theory to describe railway system safety and discuss system risk concept

机译：用突变理论描述铁路系统安全并讨论系统风险概念

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Catastrophe theory can describe a continuous process that is undergoing abrupt changes. A dynamic process can be considered a cusp catastrophe if it has the following five qualities: bimodality, sudden transitions, hysteresis, inaccessibility, and divergence. In this paper, the cusp catastrophe model is applied to describe the dynamic changing process of railway system safety. This dynamic process is also proved to have the five qualities of a cusp catastrophe. With the use of the cusp catastrophe model, a framework for the system risk of railway systems is constructed, and some ideas on the risk field of railway system safety are presented. On the basis of the framework and ideas, the dynamic changes in the system risk in a railway accident evolution process can be described in a novel approach. The concept of system risk in railway system safety is also discussed in three aspects. We hope that the theoretical description of and discussion on system risk could facilitate a profound analysis of railway system safety. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：突变理论可以描述一个不断变化的连续过程。如果一个动态过程具有以下五个特征，则它可以被认为是风口浪尖的灾难：双峰性，突然转变，滞后，不可及和发散。本文采用尖点突变模型来描述铁路系统安全性的动态变化过程。这个动态过程也被证明具有尖峰灾难的五个特质。利用尖峰突变模型，建立了铁路系统系统风险的框架，提出了铁路系统安全风险领域的一些思路。基于该框架和思想，可以用一种新颖的方法来描述铁路事故演变过程中系统风险的动态变化。还从三个方面讨论了铁路系统安全中的系统风险概念。我们希望对系统风险的理论描述和讨论能够有助于对铁路系统安全性进行深入的分析。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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