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Consequence and likelihood in risk estimation: A matter of balance in UK health and safety risk assessment practice

机译：风险评估的后果和可能性：英国健康与安全风险评估实践中的平衡问题

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This paper argues that existing semi-quantitative risk estimation methodologies commonly applied within UK health and safety risk assessment practice are biased towards considerations of possible consequence rather than overall risk. This is seen to be leading to a slow shift towards risk aversion within UK health and safety decision making. A reworking of existing risk estimation methodology is proposed. Instead of seeking an explicit value for the level of risk the paper suggests that in lower risk industrial and commercial sectors it is sufficient to establish whether the risk is likely to fall within an intolerable, tolerable or acceptable risk zone. Once this evaluation has been completed it is further argued that risks judged to fall within the tolerable zone, which equates to a legal duty to reduce risk so far as reasonably practicable in UK, can be prioritised using values of exposure to the hazard. The method is seen as having significant advantages over other semi-quantitative risk estimation approaches presently used in UK.
机译：本文认为，英国健康和安全风险评估实践中普遍采用的现有半定量风险评估方法偏向于考虑可能的后果，而不是整体风险。在英国的健康和安全决策中，这被认为导致缓慢地转向风险规避。提出了对现有风险估计方法的改进。本文没有寻求明确的风险水平值，而是建议在较低风险的工业和商业领域中，足以确定风险是否可能落在无法容忍，可容忍或可接受的风险范围内。一旦评估完成，就可以进一步论证，可以使用暴露于危害的值来优先考虑被判断为属于可忍受范围之内的风险，这相当于在英国合理可行的范围内降低风险的法律责任。与目前在英国使用的其他半定量风险估计方法相比，该方法具有明显的优势。

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