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首页> 外文期刊>Seismological research letters >How Many Lives were Saved by the Evacuation before the M 7.3 Haicheng Earthquake of 1975?
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How Many Lives were Saved by the Evacuation before the M 7.3 Haicheng Earthquake of 1975?

机译：1975年海城7.3级地震前的撤离行动挽救了多少生命？

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摘要

It is difficult to know how many fatalities and injuries in an earthquake may have been avoided by a mitigating action because the result without the mitigation can usually not be estimated with a useful reliability. The case of the evacuation before the 1975, M 7.3, Haicheng earthquake offers a rare opportunity to quantitatively estimate the number of casualties saved. We show that the computer tool QLARM has calculated the human losses in eight damaging earthquakes in China approximately correctly within 40 min, without information from the affected area. Therefore, our estimates of the numbers of casualties that would have resulted in the Haicheng earthquake without evacuation are reasonably reliable. The numbers of fatalities and injured saved are estimated to have been about 8000 and 27,000, respectively, (±60%). We propose that advanced scenario modeling of the losses in disasters, natural or man-made, allow estimates of the effectiveness of mitigation.
机译：很难知道通过减灾行动可以避免多少人丧生和受伤，因为通常无法以有用的可靠性来估算没有减灾的结果。 1975年海城M 7.3级地震之前的疏散情况提供了难得的机会来定量估计所挽救的伤亡人数。我们证明了计算机工具QLARM在40分钟内大约正确地计算了中国八场破坏性地震的人员损失，而没有来自受影响地区的信息。因此，我们对在没有撤离的情况下会造成海城地震的人员伤亡人数的估计是合理可靠的。估计死亡人数和挽救的受伤人数分别约为8000和27,000（±60％）。我们建议对自然或人为灾害造成的损失进行高级情景建模，以便估算缓解的有效性。

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