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首页> 外文期刊>Seismological research letters >Seismic-Hazard Forecast for 2016 Including Induced and Natural Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States
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Seismic-Hazard Forecast for 2016 Including Induced and Natural Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States

机译：2016年地震危险性预测，包括美国中部和东部的诱发地震和自然地震

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The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one-year (2016) probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al., 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short-term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014-2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground-motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b = 1.0 rather than the full catalog with b = 1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground-shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high-hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas-Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%-12% per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high-hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north-central Arkansas; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3- to 10-fold higher near some areas of active-induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI >= VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.
机译：美国地质调查局（USGS）对美国中部和东部（CEUS）进行了为期一年（2016）的概率地震灾害评估，其中包括诱发地震和自然地震的贡献，这些地震是采用概率方法使用替代数据构建而成的。输入。该危害评估以我们2016年的最终模型（Petersen等人，2016）为基础，增加了敏感性研究，以新方式说明了危害，纳入了新的人口数据，并讨论了潜在的改进措施。该模型考虑了短期地震活动率（主要是2014-2015年），并假设活动率在短时间间隔内将保持稳定。最终模型通过合并两个相等加权的地震速率子模型来考虑对诱发地震和自然地震进行分类的不同方法，这些子模型由用于目录持续时间，平滑参数，最大震级和地震动模型的替代地震输入组成。这些替代方案代表了我们如何计算地震发生以及科学界内部观点多样性的不确定性。在本文中，我们还测试了对M4和M 4.7之间的最小矩幅值的敏感度，以及选择应用b = 1.0的分簇目录而不是b = 1.3的完整目录的选择。我们合并了两个地震速率子模型：在知情子模型中，我们将地震分类为诱发地震或自然地震，在自适应子模型中，我们不进行区分。替代子模型危害图都描述了高危害，并将它们组合到最终模型中。结果描述了几种震撼性措施以及强度，包括显示高危险等级（超过1年或超过1％的概率）的地图。在俄克拉荷马州中北部和堪萨斯州南部，地震动达到0.6g水平峰值地面加速度（PGA），在科罗拉多州和新墨西哥州的拉顿盆地，阿肯色州中部以及达拉斯堡附近的德克萨斯州中北部，地震动达到0.2g PGA价值。在俄克拉荷马州中北部，堪萨斯州南部和新马德里，与修正的Mercalli强度（MMI）VI或更高的地震震级相对应的地震动水平每年为2％-12％，与高海拔地区受到破坏的机会相似自然地震造成的加利福尼亚的危险部分。在科罗拉多州/新墨西哥州的拉顿盆地，危害也很严重;阿肯色州中北部;德克萨斯州达拉斯沃思堡;以及其他一些领域。超过MMI VII或VIII的危险概率要低得多（大约一半或更多）。与未考虑诱发地震的2014年USGS国家地震危害模型（NSHM）相比，在一些主动诱发地震区域附近的危害高出3到10倍。这项研究与LandScan TM数据库（2013年）的结合表明，2016年约有800万人居住在活跃的注入井地区，这些地区有超过1％的机会遭受破坏性地面震动（MMI> = VI）。最终模型不确定性很高，工程师，监管机构和行业应谨慎使用这些评估，以做出有根据的决策，以减轻诱发和自然地震的潜在影响。

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