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Seismic Hazard vs. Seismic Risk

机译:地震危险与地震风险

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摘要

The world is full of uncertainties, ranging from climate change,financial markets, natural disasters, terror attacks, and personal health to the measurements of the most fundamental elements of all: time and space. Dealing with uncertainty is a given in life, and any decision is always made under a certain degree of uncertainty. Risk is one of the most important concepts for dealing with uncertainty in decision making. Another important concept associated with risk is hazard. Hazard is a natural or man-made phenomenon that has the potential to cause harm (i.e., social or economic consequences). Hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods, for example, are natural hazards, whereas car crashes, chemical spills, train derailments, and terror attacks are manmade hazards. Risk, on the other hand, is the probability of harm if someone or something is exposed to a hazard. Similarly, seismic hazard and seismic risk are fundamentally different. Seismic hazard is a natural phenomenon such as ground shaking, fault rupture, or soil liquefaction that is generated by an earthquake, whereas seismic risk is the probability that humans will incur loss or damage to their built environment if they are exposed to a seismic hazard. In other words, seismic risk is an interaction between seismic hazard and vulnerability (humans or their built environment). In general, seismic risk can be expressed qualitatively as
机译:世界充满了不确定性,从气候变化,金融市场,自然灾害,恐怖袭击,个人健康到对所有最基本要素的度量:时空。处理不确定性是生活中必不可少的,任何决定总是在一定程度的不确定性下做出的。风险是处理决策不确定性的最重要概念之一。与风险相关的另一个重要概念是危害。危害是一种自然或人为的现象,有可能造成伤害(即社会或经济后果)。例如,飓风,地震,龙卷风和洪水是自然危害,而车祸,化学物溢出,火车出轨和恐怖袭击则是人为危害。另一方面,风险是如果某人或某物暴露在危险中而造成伤害的可能性。同样,地震危险性和地震危险性也有根本不同。地震危险是自然现象,例如地震引起的地震动,断层破裂或土壤液化,而地震危险是指如果人类暴露于地震危险中,会对其建筑环境造成损失或破坏的可能性。换句话说,地震风险是地震危险与脆弱性(人类或其建筑环境)之间的相互作用。通常,地震风险可以定性表示为

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