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Why the French did not choose to panic: A dynamic analysis of the public response to the influenza pandemic

机译：法国人为什么不选择恐慌：对流感大流行的公众反应的动态分析

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摘要

To understand the French public's response to the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza health threat a sequence analysis framework has been employed mobilising different theoretical strands such as innovations diffusion theory, surprise theory and social representation theory. These tend to suggest that disease episodes, public health policy and the public's response should be considered within a larger socio-cognitive frame incorporating representations anchored by prior disease episodes and campaigns. It is suggested in this article that the public's response was greatly influenced by the pervasive anchoring of the social representations of the pandemic threat to the 1918 Spanish flu in the lay and scientific media. These representations were eventually seen not to match the reality of the disease and consequently the French public did not panic during the 2009 pandemic. This hypothesis has been tested empirically by examining retrospective media, bibliographical data and an analysis of risk perception carried out through three cross-sectional studies prior to and during the pandemic episode and onemonth after the launch of the vaccination campaign. These findings suggest that alarmist framings of health threats may be counterproductive since they may reduce the capacity of public health organisations to mobilise the public in the case of more serious emerging disease.
机译：为了了解法国公众对2009年A / H1N1大流行性流感健康威胁的反应，采用了序列分析框架，以动员不同的理论领域，例如创新扩散理论，突击理论和社会代表性理论。这些趋势表明，应该在更大的社会认知框架内考虑疾病发作，公共卫生政策和公众对策，并结合先前疾病发作和运动所锚定的表征。在本文中建议，公众的反应在很大程度上受到大流行威胁对1918年西班牙流感在非专业人士和科学媒体中的社会代表的广泛影响。最终，这些代表被认为与疾病的实际情况不符，因此，法国公众在2009年大流行期间并未恐慌。通过在流感大流行发作之前和之中以及疫苗接种活动开始后一个月内进行的三项横断面研究，通过回顾性媒体，书目数据以及对风险感知的分析，对这一假设进行了实证检验。这些发现表明，对健康威胁的警惕性框架可能适得其反，因为它们可能会降低公共卫生组织在更严重的新发疾病中动员公众的能力。

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