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Using model-based evidence in the governance of pandemics

机译：在流行病治理中使用基于模型的证据

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Pandemic preparedness planning relies on techniques to extend epidemiological inference beyond the bounds of direct observation. Mathematical modelling and simulation techniques are used to predict the course of an outbreak or test various mitigation strategies in pre-pandemic preparedness planning. This reflects an increasing reliance on quantifiable objects and establishing regulatory and governing practices by developing numerical assessment methods. This process has been described in terms of techne; the emergence of technologies and practices of calculation in the context of governance. This article develops a narrative framework to study how modelling methods are used in the governance of pandemic outbreaks by analysing both pre-pandemic modelling practices and model-based evidence used in pandemic risk assessment at the European Disease Control Centre. It examines how the modelling methods form techne through which the efforts of governance are organised. It concludes with a critical reflection on the limits of modelling methods by studying how they accommodate uncertainties.
机译：大流行的防备计划依赖于将流行病学推论扩展到直接观察范围之外的技术。在大流行前的防备计划中，数学建模和模拟技术可用于预测爆发过程或测试各种缓解策略。这反映出人们越来越依赖可量化的对象，并通过开发数字评估方法来建立监管和规范实践。已经根据技术来描述了该过程。在治理环境中出现了计算技术和实践。本文通过分析大流行前的建模实践和欧洲疾病控制中心在大流行风险评估中使用的基于模型的证据，建立了一个叙事框架，以研究如何在大流行的爆发治理中使用建模方法。它研究了建模方法如何形成组织治理工作的技术。最后通过研究建模方法如何适应不确定性，对建模方法的局限性进行了批判性思考。

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