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Influence of Rainfall Data on the Uncertainty of Flood Simulation

机译：降雨数据对洪水模拟不确定性的影响

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摘要

The aim of this paper was to determine the influence of factors related to rainfall data on the uncertainty flood simulation. The calculations were based on a synthetic unit hydrograph NRCS-UH. Simulation uncertainty was determined by means of GLUE method. The calculations showed that in the case of a catchment with limited meteorological data, it is better to use rainfall data from a single station located within the catchment, than to take into account the data from higher number of stations, but located outside the catchment area. The parameters of the NRCS-UH model (curve number and initial abstraction) were found to be less variable when the input contained rainfall data from a single rainfall station. It was also manifested by a lower uncertainty of the simulation results for the variant with one rainfall station, as compared to the variant based on the use of averaged rainfall in the catchment.
机译：本文的目的是确定与降雨数据有关的因素对不确定性洪水模拟的影响。该计算基于合成单位水位图NRCS-UH。仿真不确定性是通过GLUE方法确定的。计算表明，在流域气象数据有限的情况下，最好使用来自流域内单个气象站的降雨数据，而不要考虑来自多个气象站但位于流域区域之外的气象站的数据。当输入中包含来自单个降雨站的降雨数据时，发现NRCS-UH模型的参数（曲线数和初始抽象）变化较小。与基于集水区平均降雨量的变型相比，具有一个降雨站的变型的模拟结果的不确定性也较低，这也证明了这一点。

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