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Reading the rains: local knowledge and rainfall forecasting in Burkina Faso

机译：读雨：布基纳法索的当地知识和降雨预报

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摘要

This article describes how farmers of Burkina Faso predict seasonal rainfall and examines how their forecasts relate to those produced by meteorological science. Farmers' forecasting knowledge encompasses shared and selective repertoires. Most farmers formulate expectations from observation of natural phenomena. Cultural and ritual spiritualists also predict rainfall from divination, visions, and dreams. Rather than positing local and scientific knowledge as self-exclusive, our research shows thatfarmers operate in multiple cognitive frameworks. Moreover, they are interested in receiving scientific information because they perceive local forecasts as becoming less reliable as a result of increasing climate variability. Some aspects of local forecasting knowledge, such as those stressing the relationship between temperatures, wind, and rainfall, can help explain meteorology-based forecasts. But significant discordance remains between scientific and local forecasts. The former predict total rainfall quantity at a regional scale, whereas the latter stress rainfall duration and distribution and are more attuned to crop-weather interactions. Local systems of thought stress the relationship between knowledge and social responsibility. This emphasizesthe need for scientists to integrate information dissemination projects with efforts to improve farmers' capacity to respond to forecasts and to cope with suboptimal climate impacts.
机译：本文介绍了布基纳法索的农民如何预测季节性降雨，并检验了他们的预报与气象科学的预报之间的关系。农民的预报知识包括共享和选择的曲目。大多数农民通过观察自然现象来制定期望。文化和仪式的唯心主义者也从占卜，异象和梦想中预测降雨。我们的研究表明，农民在多种认知框架内运作，而不是将本地知识和科学知识视作自我排斥。此外，他们对接收科学信息很感兴趣，因为他们认为由于气候多变性导致当地预报的可靠性降低。当地预报知识的某些方面，例如强调温度，风和降雨之间关系的方面，可以帮助解释基于气象的预报。但是，科学预测与当地预测之间仍然存在重大分歧。前者预测区域范围内的总降雨量，而后者则着重于降雨的持续时间和分布，并且更适合作物与天气的相互作用。当地的思想体系强调知识与社会责任之间的关系。这强调了科学家需要整合信息传播项目，以努力提高农民对预报的反应能力和应对次佳的气候影响。

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