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首页> 外文期刊>Southeastern naturalist >Informing Recovery Management of the Threatened Blackside Dace, Chrosomus cumberlandensis, using a Bayesian-Belief Network Model
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Informing Recovery Management of the Threatened Blackside Dace, Chrosomus cumberlandensis, using a Bayesian-Belief Network Model

机译：使用Bayesian-Belief网络模型通知受威胁的黑边D（Chrosomus cumberlandensis）的恢复管理

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摘要

Integrated modeling frameworks allow resource managers to incorporate multiple sources of information (both data and expert judgment), acknowledge uncertainty, and make quantitative predictions about resource outcomes. To demonstrate the utility of an integrated-modeling approach for recovery planning of imperiled species, we developed a comprehensive model in the form of a Bayesian-belief network to support recovery of a federally listed stream fish, Chrosomus cumberlandensis (Blackside Dace). Our model quantitatively combined expert judgment and data from empirical studies to create a comprehensive model that is testable, transferable, and easily communicated. Sensitivity- and scenario-building analyses demonstrated that mining impacts such as elevated stream conductivity were the most influential variables affecting predicted local Blackside Dace population persistence. Our results suggest that mining impacts are a logical focal point for research and recovery actions for the species, but additional review and revision of the model are recommended. Taken as a whole, our effort enhances the current and future capacity for informed recovery-management of Blackside Dace populations.
机译：集成的建模框架允许资源管理者合并多种信息源（数据和专家判断），确认不确定性以及对资源成果进行定量预测。为了展示综合模型方法在受威胁物种的恢复计划中的实用性，我们以贝叶斯信仰网络的形式开发了一个综合模型，以支持联邦列出的河豚Chrosomus cumberlandensis（Blackside Dace）的恢复。我们的模型将专家判断和来自实证研究的数据定量地结合在一起，以创建可测试，可转移和易于传达的全面模型。敏感性和情景构建分析表明，采矿影响（如水流电导率升高）是影响预计的Blackside Dace人口持久性的最有影响力的变量。我们的结果表明，采矿影响是该物种研究和恢复行动的逻辑重点，但建议对该模型进行其他审查和修订。总的来说，我们的工作将增强当前和未来对Blackside Dace种群进行知情恢复管理的能力。

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