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Regional climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in a midcontinental region of North America

机译:北美中部地区保护生物多样性的区域气候变化适应策略

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Scenario planning should be an effective tool for developing responses to climate change but will depend on ecological assessments of broad enough scope to support decision-making. Using climate projections from an ensemble of 16 models, we conducted an assessment of a midcontinental area of North America (Minnesota) based on a resistance, resilience, and facilitation framework. We assessed likely impacts and proposed options for eight landscape regions within the planning area. Climate change projections suggest that by 2069, average annual temperatures will increase 3 super(o)C with a slight increase in precipitation (6%). Analogous climate locales currently prevail 400-500km SSW. Although the effects of climate change may be resisted through intensive management of invasive species, herbivores, and disturbance regimes, conservation practices need to shift to facilitation and resilience. Key resilience actions include providing buffers for small reserves, expanding reserves that lack adequate environmental heterogeneity, prioritizing protection of likely climate refuges, and managing forests for multi-species and multi-aged stands. Modifying restoration practices to rely on seeding (not plants), enlarge seed zones, and include common species from nearby southerly or drier locales is a logical low-risk facilitation strategy. Monitoring ''trailing edge'' populations of rare species should be a high conservation priority to support decision-making related to assisted colonization. Ecological assessments that consider resistance, resilience, and facilitation actions during scenario planning is a productive first step towards effective climate change planning for biodiversity with broad applicability to many regions of the world.
机译:方案规划应该是制定应对气候变化的有效工具,但将取决于范围广泛的生态评估,以支持决策。使用来自16个模型的集合的气候预测,我们基于抵抗力,复原力和便利化框架对北美(明尼苏达州)的中陆地区进行了评估。我们评估了规划区域内八个景观区域的可能影响并提出了备选方案。气候变化预测表明,到2069年,年平均气温将增加3 super(o)C,而降水量将略有增加(6%)。目前,类似的气候环境盛行于SSW 400-500 km。尽管可以通过对入侵物种,草食动物和干扰制度的强化管理来抵制气候变化的影响,但是保护实践需要转向促进和适应力。主要的复原力措施包括为小规模保护区提供缓冲,扩大缺乏足够的环境异质性的保护区,优先保护可能的气候庇护所以及管理多物种和多年龄林的森林。合理的低风险促进策略是,修改恢复措施以依靠播种(而不是植物),扩大种子区并包括来自附近南方或干旱地区的常见物种。监测稀有物种的“后缘”种群应成为高度优先的保护工作,以支持与辅助殖民有关的决策。在情景规划过程中考虑抵抗,抵御力和促进行动的生态评估是朝着有效的生物多样性气候变化规划迈出富有成效的第一步,这一规划广泛适用于世界许多地区。

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