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首页> 外文期刊>Surveys in Geophysics: An International Review Journal of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences >Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation
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Arctic Climate and Water Change: Model and Observation Relevance for Assessment and Adaptation

机译：北极气候和水的变化：评估和适应的模型和观测意义

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摘要

The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its climate and water systems are in rapid transformation. In this paper, we review and extend a set of studies on climate model results, hydro-climatic change, and hydrological monitoring systems. Results indicate that general circulation model (GCM) projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two model generations. However, some inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. When considering geographical priorities for monitoring or adaptation efforts, our results indicate that future projections by GCMs and recent observations diverge regarding the basins where temperature and precipitation changes currently are the most pronounced and where they will be so in the future. Regarding late twentieth-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers, data generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution to sea-level rise of river water that was previously stored in permafrost or groundwater. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow is similar in magnitude to the separate contribution from glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all possible sources of freshwater when assessing sea-level change. We further investigate monitoring systems and find a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which limits the ability to understand the origin and transport of nutrients, carbon and sediment to the sea. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. Further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. Finally, improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections.
机译：北极受到越来越多的经济和政治关注。同时，其气候和水系统正在快速转变。在本文中，我们回顾并扩展了关于气候模型结果，水文气候变化和水文监测系统的研究。结果表明，在两个模型世代之间，流域温度和降水的一般循环模型（GCM）预测得到了改善。但是，降水量预测仍存在一些误差。在考虑进行监测或适应工作的地理优先事项时，我们的结果表明，GCM的未来预测和最近的观察结果对当前温度和降水变化最为明显的盆地以及未来的变化趋势存在分歧。关于二十世纪末主要北极河流的流量变化，数据通常显示相对于降水量变化而言，水量过多。这表明对先前存储在永久冻土或地下水中的河水海平面上升的可能贡献。河流对北冰洋淡水流入量增加的贡献与冰川单独贡献的量相似，这突出了在评估海平面变化时考虑所有可能的淡水来源的重要性。我们进一步研究了监测系统，发现缺乏统一的水化学数据，这限制了了解养分，碳和沉积物向海的来源和运输的能力。为了为研究和政策提供足够的信息，需要扩大北极水文和水化学监测的范围，使其更好地整合，并使其更易于获取。需要进一步的以水为重点的数据和建模工作，才能解决北极河流中过量排放的源头。最后，需要改进气候模型参数化，特别是对于降水预测。

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