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首页> 外文期刊>Surveys in Geophysics: An International Review Journal of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences >Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows
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Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows

机译：观测和模拟地球的能量流

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This article reviews, from the authors' perspective, progress in observing and modeling energy flows in Earth's climate system. Emphasis is placed on the state of understanding of Earth's energy flows and their susceptibility to perturbations, with particular emphasis on the roles of clouds and aerosols. More accurate measurements of the total solar irradiance and the rate of change of ocean enthalpy help constrain individual components of the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere to within ±2 W m ~(-2). The measurements demonstrate that Earth reflects substantially less solar radiation and emits more terrestrial radiation than was believed even a decade ago. Active remote sensing is helping to constrain the surface energy budget, but new estimates of downwelling surface irradiance that benefit from such methods are proving difficult to reconcile with existing precipitation climatologies. Overall, the energy budget at the surface is much more uncertain than at the top of the atmosphere. A decade of high-precision measurements of the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere is providing new opportunities to track Earth's energy flows on timescales ranging from days to years, and at very high spatial resolution. The measurements show that the principal limitation in the estimate of secular trends now lies in the natural variability of the Earth system itself. The forcing-feedback-response framework, which has developed to understand how changes in Earth's energy flows affect surface temperature, is reviewed in light of recent work that shows fast responses (adjustments) of the system are central to the definition of the effective forcing that results from a change in atmospheric composition. In many cases, the adjustment, rather than the characterization of the compositional perturbation (associated, for instance, with changing greenhouse gas concentrations, or aerosol burdens), limits accurate determination of the radiative forcing. Changes in clouds contribute importantly to this adjustment and thus contribute both to uncertainty in estimates of radiative forcing and to uncertainty in the response. Models are indispensable to calculation of the adjustment of the system to a compositional change but are known to be flawed in their representation of clouds. Advances in tracking Earth's energy flows and compositional changes on daily through decadal timescales are shown to provide both a critical and constructive framework for advancing model development and evaluation.
机译：本文从作者的角度回顾了观察和模拟地球气候系统中能量流的进展。重点放在对地球能量流及其对扰动的敏感性的理解状态上，尤其要强调云和气溶胶的作用。更准确地测量总太阳辐照度和海洋焓变率有助于将大气层顶部能量收支的各个组成部分限制在±2 W m〜（-2）之内。测量结果表明，与十年前相比，地球反射的太阳辐射少得多，并发射的地面辐射更多。主动遥感正在帮助限制地表能量收支，但事实证明，得益于此类方法的井下地表辐照度的新估算难以与现有的降水气候相协调。总体而言，地表的能源预算比大气层顶部的能源预算更加不确定。十年来，对大气层顶部能量预算的高精度测量提供了新的机会，可以以几天到几年的时间尺度和非常高的空间分辨率跟踪地球的能量流。测量表明，目前估计长期趋势的主要限制在于地球系统本身的自然可变性。强迫反馈反馈框架是为了了解地球能量流的变化如何影响地表温度而开发的，最近的研究表明系统的快速响应（调整）对于有效强迫的定义至关重要。是由于大气成分的变化。在许多情况下，调整而不是成分扰动的表征（例如与变化的温室气体浓度或气溶胶负荷相关）限制了对辐射强迫的准确确定。云的变化对这种调整有重要作用，因此既会导致辐射强迫估计的不确定性，又会导致响应的不确定性。模型对于计算系统对成分变化的调整是必不可少的，但是已知它们在云表示方面存在缺陷。研究表明，通过年代际尺度每天跟踪地球能量流和组成变化的进展，为推进模型开发和评估提供了关键和建设性的框架。

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