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首页> 外文期刊>Surveys in Geophysics: An International Review Journal of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences >Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects
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Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

机译：在全球范围内建立淡水资源模型：挑战与前景

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摘要

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.
机译：需要对全球所有土地区域的空间和时间分辨的水流量和储水量进行量化，以评估水资源，水资源短缺和洪水灾害，并了解地球系统。借助全球水文模型（GHM）进行量化。 GHM的开发和应用面临哪些挑战和前景？提出了七个重要的挑战。 （1）尽管过去十年已取得重大进展，但数据匮乏使人类用水的量化变得困难。 （2）气象输入数据的不确定性强烈影响模型输出。 （3）植被对变化的气候和CO2浓度的反应尚不确定，在大多数用来估算气候变化影响的GHM中并未考虑到。 （4）GHM对气候变化做出不同反应的原因尚未确定。 （5）需要更准确地估计水的可获得性和使用量的每月时间序列，以提供良好的缺水指标。 （6）为了更好地模拟地下水-地表水的相互作用和毛细上升，必须将基于梯度的地下水模型集成到GHM中。 （7）使用GHM检测和归因于人为干扰的淡水系统受到质量不足的数据以及GHM不确定性本身的限制。关于进展前景，我们建议通过多准则验证，校准或数据同化，更好地利用输出变量（如河流流量或总蓄水量变化）的原位和遥感观测结果来减少GHM输出的不确定性。最后，我们提出了一项旨在实现超分辨率全球水文建模愿景的倡议，其中将以1 km的分辨率以合理的精度提供GHM输出。

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