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首页> 外文期刊>Pain. >The indirect costs of back problems (dorsopathies) in Australians aged 45 to 64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030
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The indirect costs of back problems (dorsopathies) in Australians aged 45 to 64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030

机译：从2015年到2030年，年龄在45至64岁的澳大利亚人的背部问题（背痛）的间接成本：来自微观模拟模型Health＆WealthMOD2030的结果

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This study projected the indirect costs of back problems through lost productive life years (PLYs) from the individual's perspective (lost disposable income), the governmental perspective (reduced taxation revenue, greater welfare spending), and the societal perspective (lost gross domestic product, GDP) from 2015 to 2030, using Health&WealthMOD2030-Australia's first microsimulation model on the long-term impacts of ill-health. Quantile regression analysis was used to examine differences in median weekly income, welfare payments, and taxes of people unable to work due to back problems with working full-time without back problems as comparator. National costs and lost GDP resulting from missing workers due to back problems were also projected. We projected that 90,000 people have lost PLYs due to back problems in 2015, increasing to 104,600 in 2030 (16.2% increase). People with lost PLYs due to back problems are projected to receive AU$340.91 less in total income and AU$339.77 more in welfare payments per week than full-time workers without back problems in 2030 and pay no income tax on average. National costs consisted of a loss of AU$2931 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to AU$4660 million in 2030 (60% increase). For government, extra annual welfare payments are projected to increase from AU$1462 million in 2015 to AU$1709 million in 2030 (16.9% increase), and lost annual taxation revenue to increase from AU$671 million in 2015 to $961 million in 2030 (43.2% increase). We projected losses in GDP of AU$10,543 million in 2015, increasing to AU$14,522 million in 2030 due to back problems.
机译：这项研究从个人角度（可支配收入损失），政府角度（税收减少，福利支出减少）和社会角度（国内生产总值损失， GDP（2015年至2030年），使用Health＆WealthMOD2030-Australia的第一个微观模拟模型来研究不良健康的长期影响。使用分位数回归分析来检查由于背部问题而全职工作而没有背部问题的无能力工作的人的每周收入中位数，福利金和税款的差异，作为比较者。还预测了由于背部问题而导致的工人流失而导致的国家成本和GDP损失。我们预计，由于背部问题，2015年将有90,000人失去PLY，到2030年将增至104,600人（增长16.2％）。预计到2030年，由于背部问题而导致PLY丧失的人的总收入将比没有背部问题的全职工人少340.91澳元，每周多获得339.77澳元的福利金，并且平均无需缴纳所得税。国家成本包括2015年的年收入损失2.93亿澳元，到2030年将增至46.6亿澳元（增长60％）。对于政府而言，额外的年度福利支出预计将从2015年的1.462亿澳元增加到2030年的17.09亿澳元（增长16.9％），而年度税收损失将从2015年的6.71亿澳元增加到2030年的9.61亿澳元（43.2％）。增加）。我们预计2015年国内生产总值的损失为105.43亿澳元，由于背部问题，到2030年将增至145.22亿澳元。

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