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首页> 外文期刊>Parasitology >Prediction of prevalence from mean abundance via a simple epidemiological model in mesostigmate mites from two geographical regions.
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Prediction of prevalence from mean abundance via a simple epidemiological model in mesostigmate mites from two geographical regions.

机译：通过简单的流行病学模型根据平均丰度预测两个地理区域的近中生螨虫的患病率。

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摘要

We analysed data on the abundance and distribution of 26 species of mesostigmate mites with different feeding habits collected from bodies of small mammalian hosts in 2 geographical regions (West Siberia and Argentina). We tested whether prevalence of a mite can be reliably predicted from a simple epidemiological model that takes into account mean abundance and its variance. We theorized that the difference between prevalence predicted from the model and observed prevalence would be smallest in obligatory haematophagous mites, intermediate in facultatively haematophagous mites and greatest in non-haematophagous mites. We also theorized that prevalence of mites from the region with sharp seasonality (Siberia) would be predicted accurately only if host number would be taken into account. We found that the success of a simple epidemiological model to predict prevalence in mites was similar to that reported earlier for other ectoparasitic arthropods. Surprisingly, the model predicted prevalence of obligatory exclusively haematophagous mites less successfully than that of mites with other feeding habits. No difference in the model performance between mites occurring in the 2 geographical regions were found independent of whether the model took the number of hosts into account.
机译：我们分析了从2个地理区域（西西伯利亚和阿根廷）的小型哺乳动物寄主身上收集的具有不同摄食习惯的26种近潮虫螨的丰度和分布数据。我们测试了是否可以从简单的流行病学模型中可靠地预测出螨虫的发病率，该模型考虑了平均数量及其方差。我们认为，模型预测的患病率与观察到的患病率之间的差异在强制性食血螨中最小，在兼性食血螨中中等，在非食血螨中最大。我们还推论，只有考虑寄主数目，才可以准确预测季节性急剧（西伯利亚）地区螨虫的流行。我们发现，一种简单的流行病学模型可以预测螨虫的患病率，与其他早期报道的外寄生节肢动物的成功率相似。出人意料的是，该模型预测强制性仅食血性螨虫的流行率低于具有其他喂养习惯的螨虫。不管模型是否考虑了宿主的数量，在两个地理区域内发生的螨之间的模型性能没有发现差异。

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