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Mid-Holocene ENSO: Issues in quantitative model-proxy data comparisons

机译：中全新世ENSO：定量模型代理数据比较中的问题

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Evaluation of climate model simulations using observed data contributes to the assessment of confidence in model predictions of future climate change. The mid-Holocene represents an opportunity to evaluate model simulations of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in comparison with coral proxy evidence of reduced ENSO amplitude. Quantitative comparisons between coral records and model output have been limited by (1) the use of different measures of ENSO amplitude, (2) possible sampling of natural variability in short records, and (3) uncertainty about the stationarity of the relationship between central Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability and ENSO signals at the coral site. We examine these issues using modern and fossil coral records from the western Pacific and model simulations of preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate. As a measure of ENSO amplitude, the standard deviation is found to be preferable to event frequency or size as event-based measures are highly dependent on the choice of threshold and may be unreliable for a small number of events. Model ENSO amplitude is found to be strongly dependent on the choice of averaging period, with calendar year averages smoothing the seasonal ENSO signal. A relatively robust relationship between SST variability in the NINO3.4 region and the ENSO SST and precipitation anomalies archived in corals is demonstrated for the instrumental period and for a set of model simulations. Remaining uncertainty about changes in ENSO teleconnections under paleoclimate conditions implies the need for additional proxy records from ENSO-sensitive regions before quantitative reconstructions of ENSO amplitude can be used to evaluate model sensitivity.
机译：使用观测到的数据对气候模型模拟进行评估有助于评估对未来气候变化的模型预测的信心。全新世中期代表了一个机会，可以与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的模型模拟以及与ENSO振幅降低的珊瑚代理证据进行比较。珊瑚记录和模型输出之间的定量比较受到以下方面的限制：（1）使用ENSO振幅的不同度量;（2）短记录中自然变异的可能采样;（3）太平洋中部之间平稳关系的不确定性珊瑚站点的海表温度（SST）变异性和ENSO信号。我们使用来自西太平洋的现代和化石珊瑚记录以及工业化前和全新世中期的模型模拟来研究这些问题。作为ENSO幅度的度量，发现标准偏差优于事件频率或大小，因为基于事件的度量高度依赖于阈值的选择，并且对于少量事件可能不可靠。发现ENSO模型的振幅在很大程度上取决于平均周期的选择，日历年平均值可以平滑季节性ENSO信号。在仪器时期和一组模型模拟中，证明了NINO3.4地区的SST变异性与ENSO SST和珊瑚中的降水异常之间的相对稳健的关系。在古气候条件下，ENSO遥相关的变化仍然存在不确定性，这意味着需要在ENSO振幅的定量重建可用于评估模型敏感性之前，从ENSO敏感区域获取其他代理记录。

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