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Bifurcation structure and noise-assistedtransitions in the Pleistocene glacial cycles

机译：更新世冰川周期的分叉结构和噪声辅助转变

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[1] The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth.These changes in the forcing are too small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses.Nonlinear amplifications of the orbital forcing are necessary to account for the glacial cycles. Here an empiricalmodel of the nonlinear response is presented. From the model it is possible to assess the role of stochastic noisein comparison to the deterministic orbital forcing of the ice ages. The model is based on the bifurcation structurederived from the climate history. It indicates the dynamical origin of the mid-Pleistocene transition from the"41 ka world" to the "100 ka world." The dominant forcing in the latter is still the 41 ka obliquity cycle, but thebifurcation structure of the climate system is changed. The model suggests that transitions between glacial andinterglacial climate are assisted by internal stochastic noise in the period prior to the last five glacial cycles,while the last five cycles are deterministic responses to the orbital forcing.
机译：[1]冰川周期归因于地球辐照度的轨道变化的气候响应，这些强迫变化太小，不足以将观测到的气候变化解释为简单的线性响应，因此必须对轨道强迫进行非线性放大解释冰川周期。这里提出了非线性响应的经验模型。通过该模型，可以评估随机噪声与冰期确定性轨道强迫相比的作用。该模型基于气候历史得出的分叉结构。它表明了中更新世从“ 41 ka世界”到“ 100 ka世界”过渡的动力起源。后者的主要强迫仍然是41 ka倾角周期，但是气候系统的分叉结构发生了变化。该模型表明，在最后五个冰川周期之前的时期内，内部随机噪声有助于冰川和冰川间气候的过渡，而最后五个周期是对轨道强迫的确定性响应。

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