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Enjoy 2006 while it lasts: it will be the Peak year for this newsprint cycle

机译:持续愉快的2006年:这将是本新闻纸周期的高峰年

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摘要

All signs point toward a slowing in the pace of newsprint price increases in the North American market—and, in all probability, a turn downward over the next 12 to 18 months. Producers still have the ability to extend the cycle, by removing more tonnage from the market, but it is not clear they will take out enough, soon enough, to make a difference. The inescapable, underlying fact for newsprint suppliers is that consumption will decrease this year at approximately the same break neck pace we saw in 2005, and with only modest reductions in the rate of decline in 2007. The print newspaper is heading toward a form of stability, where shrinkage will proceed but at a rate closer to the underlying erosion of 2% per year. But it will only get to that more modest decline when prices are no longer pushing producers to rethink the content they can afford to deliver via the print medium.
机译:种种迹象表明,北美市场新闻纸价格上涨的步伐放慢了,而且很有可能在接下来的12到18个月内下降。生产商仍然有能力通过从市场上撤走更多的吨位来延长生产周期,但是目前尚不清楚他们是否会足够,足够快地采取行动来有所作为。对于新闻纸供应商而言,不可避免的基本事实是,今年的消费量将以与2005年大致相同的速度下降,而2007年的下降速度只有适度下降。印刷报纸正朝着一种稳定的方向发展。 ,但收缩率仍将继续,但下降速度接近每年2%的潜在侵蚀。但是,只有当价格不再迫使生产商重新考虑他们可以负担得起通过印刷介质提供的内容时,这种下降才会变得更加温和。

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