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首页> 外文期刊>Biological Conservation >Challenging conservation of migratory species: Sahelian rainfalls drive first-year survival of the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni
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Challenging conservation of migratory species: Sahelian rainfalls drive first-year survival of the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni

机译：具有挑战性的迁徙物种保护：萨赫勒地区的降雨推动了脆弱的小K茶Falco naumanni的第一年生存

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摘要

In the context of attested global changes, accurate estimation of whether climatic fluctuations impact on population demographic parameters is needed for adequate management, especially for migratory species. We present a capture-recapture analysis linking survival rates of the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel (Falco naumanni) to annual rainfalls in the Sahel region, considered as a proxy of climatic conditions on wintering grounds. Recapture data were obtained from field observations of individuals ringed and sexed as juveniles over a 14-year monitoring period (1994-2007). We addressed a common but problematic situation in birds where: (i) sex is known with certainty for first-summer or older birds but only suspected for juveniles, and (ii) a large proportion of individuals never return to the study population (e.g. transient behavior). Transient behavior and unknown sexes were explicitly integrated considering a two age class in a multistate capture-recapture model. Survival was time-varying for juveniles (geometric mean: 0.499pl0.021) but constant - and higher - for adults (0.718pl0.013). Yearling survival probabilities were strongly correlated with rainfalls in the Sahel, suggesting a high dependence of juvenile upon the wintering conditions. While taking sex uncertainty into account, we detected no sex-dependence in survival. Incorporating the sensitivity of survival of wintering migratory birds to climatic variables such as precipitations in arid Sahelian ecosystem may allow to model conservation scenarios with a greater realism. Finally, we encourage the development of international management strategies for migratory species on wintering areas in addition to the existing conservation actions on summering Mediterranean grounds.
机译：在经证实的全球变化的背景下，需要对气候波动是否影响人口人口参数进行准确估计，以进行适当管理，尤其是对迁徙物种。我们提出了一种捕获-捕获分析，将脆弱的小茶est（Falco naumanni）的生存率与萨赫勒地区的年降雨量联系起来，这被认为是冬季气候条件的代名词。捕获数据来自在14年的监测期内（1994-2007年）对作为幼年环和性别的个体的现场观察。我们解决了鸟类中的一个常见但有问题的情况，其中：（i）可以肯定地了解到初夏或更年长的鸟类的性别，但只怀疑幼鸟的性别，并且（ii）很大一部分人从不返回研究人群（例如暂时性）行为）。考虑到多状态捕获-捕获模型中的两个年龄段，暂时性行为和未知性别被明确整合。青少年的生存时间是随时间变化的（几何平均值：0.499pl0.021），而成年人的生存时间是恒定的，甚至更高（0.718pl0.013）。一岁生存概率与萨赫勒地区的降雨密切相关，表明幼年高度依赖越冬条件。在考虑性别不确定性的同时，我们未发现生存中的性别依赖性。结合越冬候鸟的生存对气候变量（如干旱的萨赫勒地区生态系统中的降水）的敏感性，可以模拟具有更大现实性的保护情景。最后，除了在夏季地中海地区现有的保护措施外，我们鼓励制定越冬地区移栖物种的国际管理战略。

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