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首页> 外文期刊>Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences >Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting
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Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

机译：北极海冰趋势，变异性及其对季节性冰预报的影响

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摘要

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability.
机译：卫星观测期间的9月北极海冰范围呈强烈下降趋势，并伴有明显的年际变化，与1年滞后自相关的趋势几乎为零。我们认为，通过变薄和与气候变暖相关的过程（反照率反馈更强，融化季节更长，缺乏特别寒冷的冬天）的相关过程相结合，下降趋势本身就趋于加剧。缺乏自相关既显示了夏季大气环流模式固有的大变化性，也显示了冬季的海洋热量散失为负（稳定）反馈，尽管不足以应对陡峭的趋势。这些发现对季节性冰预报有影响。尤其是，尽管观测海冰厚度并将厚度吸收到耦合预报系统中的进步提高了预报技巧，但由于大气可变性的混乱性质，可预报性仍然存在固有的局限性。

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