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首页> 外文期刊>Physics and chemistry of the earth >Climate change and impacts on the hydrology of the Congo Basin: The case of the northern sub-basins of the Oubangui and Sangha Rivers
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Climate change and impacts on the hydrology of the Congo Basin: The case of the northern sub-basins of the Oubangui and Sangha Rivers

机译：气候变化及其对刚果盆地水文学的影响：以乌班吉河和桑加河北部次流域为例

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摘要

This study assesses the hydrological response of the Congo Basin's runoff to future changes of climatic conditions. The study is carried out at the sub-basin scale in the northern part of the Congo Basin for which downscaled GCM data have been obtained. In order to assess the impacts of climate change scenarios on water resources availability of the Congo Basin, three downscaled and bias corrected GCMs were used to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model which was initially established for the whole Congo Basin through manual calibration and physically-based a priori parameter estimation approaches. The analysis focuses on the variables of the hydrological processes such as rainfall, interception, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture store, surface runoff, soil moisture runoff, and recharge. In general terms, the study shows that there is a decrease in runoff for the near-future projections in the northern part of the Congo Basin which has a tropical transition regime. For the three GCMs used in this study, there is very little change in rainfall from the historical conditions. The major change is observed in evapotranspiration, due to an increase in air temperature. There is a clear indication of the translation of climate signal into flows. There is more than 10% decrease in total runoff, which is a consequence of relatively little increase in rainfall and a consistent increase in potential evapotranspiration.
机译：这项研究评估了刚果盆地径流对未来气候条件变化的水文响应。这项研究是在刚果盆地北部的次盆地规模上进行的，该地区已获得了缩小规模的GCM数据。为了评估气候变化情景对刚果盆地水资源可利用性的影响，使用了三个按比例缩小并经偏差校正的GCM来驱动半分布式降雨-径流模型，该模型最初是通过手动校准和整个刚果盆地建立的。基于物理的先验参数估计方法。分析着重于水文过程的变量，如降雨，截留，潜在的蒸散量，土壤水分存储，地表径流，土壤水分径流和补给。总体而言，研究表明，刚果盆地北部具有热带过渡制度的近期预报的径流减少。对于本研究中使用的三个GCM，降雨与历史条件相比变化很小。由于气温升高，蒸散作用发生了重大变化。有明确的迹象表明气候信号会转化为流量。总径流减少了10％以上，这是降雨增加相对较小且潜在蒸散量持续增加的结果。

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