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首页> 外文期刊>Physics and chemistry of the earth >Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral
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Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

机译：威尼斯沿海的极端风暴潮和风浪气候情景模拟

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Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.
机译：对于产生风暴潮和风浪的极端海洋风暴的情景气候预测对于亚得里亚海的北部平坦海岸非常重要，那里的危险地区包括独特的文化和环境遗产以及重要的经济活动。这项研究使用浅水模型和频谱波模型分别根据RegCM区域气候模型计算出的海平面压力和风场来计算风暴潮和风波场。模拟涵盖了当前气候的1961-1990年（控制模拟）以及A2和B2情景的2071-2100。广义极值分析用于估算10年和100年回报时间的值。这些模型工具足以可靠地估算气候变化信号，而无需进一步缩小规模。但是，这项研究主要具有方法论价值，因为年代际变异性和模型间变异性等问题无法解决，因为该分析是基于30年单一模型的模拟。对于极限值分析，控制仿真看起来相当准确，尽管它相对于观测高估/低估了高/低浪涌和风浪事件的频率。方案模拟表明，对于B2方案，强烈风暴的频率更高，但对于A2方案则不然。这些差异可能不是气候变化的影响，而是气候年代际变化的影响。在将来的情况下，极端风暴更为强烈，但差异在统计上并不显着。因此，本研究不能为未来情景中更多的暴风雨条件提供令人信服的证据。

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