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A model for the contagion and herding

机译:传染和放牧的模型

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摘要

This work concerns the modeling of contagion and herding effects which can cause significant movements of prices and volatilities. The idea is to adapt some concepts borrowed from the Biological Sciences and that have emerged as useful analogies to model a variety of phenomena in a large variety of fields such as Engineering and Economics. In this work, the allegory of interacting particles is used to describe the contagion and emergence of herding behavior of financial agents leading to the formation of clusters. The main idea is to adapt the schemes originally employed in particle swarm optimization algorithms, together with the concepts of leaders and followers. As an illustration of the applicability of the proposed model, a case study is presented using data from the World Bank.
机译:这项工作涉及传染和成群效应的建模,这些效应可能导致价格和波动性的大幅波动。这个想法是要适应从生物科学中借来的一些概念,这些概念已经成为有用的类比,可以在工程和经济学等众多领域建模各种现象。在这项工作中,相互作用粒子的寓言被用来描述导致集群形成的金融代理商的羊群行为的蔓延和出现。主要思想是调整最初用于粒子群优化算法的方案,以及领导者和关注者的概念。为了说明所提出模型的适用性,我们使用世界银行的数据进行了案例研究。

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