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首页> 外文期刊>Physica, A. Statistical mechanics and its applications >The origins of dragon-kings and their occurrence in society
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The origins of dragon-kings and their occurrence in society

机译：龙王的起源及其在社会上的发生

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A society is a medium with a complex structure of one-to-one relations between people. Those could be relations between friends, wife-husband relationships, relations between business partners, and so on. At a certain level of analysis, a society can be regarded as a gigantic maze constituted of one-to-one relationships between people. From a physical standpoint it can be considered as a highly porous medium. Such media are widely known for their outstanding properties and effects like self-organized criticality, percolation, power-law distribution of network cluster sizes, etc. In these media supercritical events, referred to as dragon-kings, may occur in two cases: when increasing stress is applied to a system (self-organized criticality scenario) or when increasing conductivity of a system is observed (percolation scenario). In social applications the first scenario is typical for negative effects: crises, wars, revolutions, financial breakdowns, state collapses, etc. The second scenario is more typical for positive effects like emergence of cities, growth of firms, population blow-ups, economic miracles, technology diffusion, social network formation, etc. If both conditions (increasing stress and increasing conductivity) are observed together, then absolutely miraculous dragon-king effects can occur that involve most human society. Historical examples of this effect are the emergence of the Mongol Empire, world religions, World War II, and the explosive proliferation of global internet services. This article describes these two scenarios in detail beginning with an overview of historical dragon-king events and phenomena starting from the early human history till the last decades and concluding with an analysis of their possible near future consequences on our global society. Thus we demonstrate that in social systems dragon-king is not a random outlier unexplainable by power-law statistics, but a natural effect. It is a very large cluster in a porous percolation medium. It occurs as a result of changes in external conditions, such as supercritical load, increase in system elements' sensitivity, or system connectivity growth.
机译：社会是人与人之间一对一关系的复杂结构。这些可能是朋友之间的关系，夫妻关系，商业伙伴之间的关系等等。从某种程度的分析来看，社会可以看作是由人与人之间一对一关系构成的巨大迷宫。从物理角度看，它可以被认为是高度多孔的介质。此类媒体以其出色的特性和效果（如自组织的临界，渗透，网络群集大小的幂律分布等）而广为人知。在这些媒体中，被称为“龙王”的超临界事件可能在两种情况下发生：不断增加的压力应用于系统（自组织的临界情况），或者在观察到系统的电导率增加时（渗流情况）。在社会应用中，第一种情况是典型的负面影响：危机，战争，革命，金融崩溃，国家崩溃等。第二种情况更典型的是正面影响，例如城市的兴起，企业的成长，人口爆炸，经济如果同时观察到这两种情况（压力增加和导电性增加），那么绝对奇迹般的龙王效应会发生，这涉及大多数人类社会。这种影响的历史例子是蒙古帝国的出现，世界宗教，第二次世界大战以及全球互联网服务的爆炸性增长。本文详细介绍了这两种情况，首先概述了从人类早期到最后几十年的历史龙王事件和现象，最后分析了它们可能对我们的全球社会造成的近期影响。因此，我们证明，在社会系统中，龙王不是幂律统计无法解释的随机离群值，而是自然的结果。它是在多孔渗滤介质中的非常大的簇。它是由于外部条件（例如超临界负载，系统元素的敏感性增加或系统连接性增长）的变化而发生的。

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