A Little Learning...: Confidence in Multicue Judgment Tasks.

机译：一点点学习......：对多元判断任务的信心。

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A variety of discrimination tasks using complex, multifaceted stimuli were presented to subjects either with or without the opportunity to study a number of labeled examples. These tasks included deciding whether handwriting samples were produced by an American or a European, whether an ulcer was benign or malignant and which of three horses was a winner of a race at Aqueduct in 1969. Complex stimuli were chosen so that there would be a high probability that in the labeled study examples, diligent subjects could find some cue(s) highly correlated with the labels. Such capitalization on chance correlations has often been cited as the source of scientists' unwarranted confidence in their theories. As anticipated, subjects who studied examples were consistently overconfident. However, subjects who studied unlabeled examples or no examples at all were equally overconfident. Some reasons for the independence of confidence from immediate experience are discussed. (Author)

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作者
Fischhoff, B.; Slovic, P.;
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年度 1978
页码 1-58
总页数 58
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工业技术;
关键词
Learning; Judgment(Psychology); Decision making; Confidence level; Stimuli; Probability; Mean; Calibration;

机译：学习;判断（心理学）;决策;信心水平;刺激;概率;平均值;校准;

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2. Impaired access to manipulation features in Apraxia: evidence from eyetracking and semantic judgment tasks. [J] . Myung JY, Blumstein SE, Yee E, Brain and language . 2010,第2期

机译：失用症患者无法使用操纵功能：眼动和语义判断任务的证据。
3. The role of the human pulvinar in visual attention and action: evidence from temporal-order judgment, saccade decision, and antisaccade tasks. [J] . Arend I, Machado L, Ward R, Progress in brain research . 2008,第Null期

机译：人类眼球在视觉注意和动作中的作用：时间顺序判断，扫视决策和反扫视任务的证据。
4. Relative distance comparisons with confidence judgments [C] . Stefan Mojsilovic, Antti Ukkonen SIAM International Conference on Data Mining . 2019

机译：相对距离比较充满信心判断
5. Expressed confidence and skepticism: The effect of expressed confidence on auditor judgments. [D] . Aghazadeh, Sanaz. 2012

机译：表达的信心和怀疑：表达的信心对审计师判断的影响。
6. Retrospective confidence judgments: Meta‐analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging studies [O] . Beatriz Martín‐Luengo, Oksana Zinchenko, Aleksandra Dolgoarshinnaia, 2021

机译：回顾性信任判断：功能磁共振成像研究的荟萃分析
7. How target–lure similarity shapes confidence judgments in multiple-alternative decision tasks. [O] . Horry Ruth 2016

机译：目标诱惑相似性如何在多个替代决策任务中形成置信度判断。

A Little Learning...: Confidence in Multicue Judgment Tasks.

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