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Assessing the Strategic Environment: Developing Critical Thinking Skills at the Ethiopian Defense Command and Staff College (CSL Issue Paper, Volume 15-11, July 2011)

机译：评估战略环境：在埃塞俄比亚国防指挥与职员学院培养批判性思维技能（CsL Issue paper，Volume 15-11，July 2011）

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摘要

A government s failure to understand the impact of global variables on the domestic environment can result in major destabilizing events. Emperor Tewodros II of Abyssinia (Ethiopia) learned this lesson the hard way. In 1862, after a snub by the British Government, the Emperor took the British Consul and other Europeans hostage to pressure the Crown to meet his request for equipment and training support. Being a somewhat impatient ruler, he also detained the British delegation sent to negotiate the initial hostages release. Because Britain s ruling Liberal Party was reluctant to engage in imperial adventures, the hostages were still in loco Abyssinia into 1867. What Emperor Tewodros was unaware of was that the hostages situation was being played out in the British Press, becoming a factor in the Conservative victory in the 1867 general election. With a sense of obligation to settle the Abyssinia matter, in August 1867, on the Government s recommendation, Queen Victoria directed a punitive expedition to free the hostages. After overcoming major logistical and transportation challenges, the issue was settled with a British victory at Arogi, the successful storming of the Emperor s Citadel at Magdala, and Tewodros suicide in August 1868.1 This example of separate events taking place 3,600 miles apart, but having major impacts on both countries involved, demonstrates why governments must learn to take into consideration both their domestic and the global environments when developing national security policy and strategy. This is especially critical in today s atmosphere where, thanks to the internet and new media, information is available globally almost instantaneously. Today a Tewodros should be able to assess key global variables, and make decisions that reinforce stability rather than leading to his demise.

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