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Rethinking Strategic Surprise: Defence Planning Under 'Bounded Uncertainty'

机译：重新思考战略意外：“有限不确定性”下的国防规划

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This Technical Memorandum contends that the defence planning process is ill served by the assumption that uncertainty abounds. To the extent that uncertainty poses a serious impediment to effective defence planning against the threat of strategic surprise, it is a problem circumscribed by relatively firm knowledge as to the potential sources of danger. Accordingly, I propose recasting the problem of strategic surprise as one of 'bounded uncertainty.' The argument is empirically illustrated through an examination of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

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