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China's Military Modernization: Progress and Prospects

机译：中国军事现代化：进展与前景

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In aggregate terms China's military modernization program appears vast, relentless, and threatening. However, analysis of the program component parts, viewed in context with phenomena buffeting the Chinese political economy, yields a far different perspective. At this juncture, the threat is overstated. Despite achieving select 'pockets of excellence', the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) cannot achieve world class military power status before the year 2020. Meanwhile, time is available for the United States to engage China and shape her role in the Asian security environment. At the theater/strategic level, the United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) has the critical role in developing military-to-military contacts necessary for creation and sustainment of transparency measures essential for regional stability and security. 1997 was a pivotal year for Sino-American relations with the signing of the Military Maritime Safety Agreement. The challenge now is to expand this framework and ensure Chinese reciprocity. Recommended future actions included (1) creating a cadre of US military 'China experts' to carry the program into the next century, (2) expanding the scope of military-to-military contacts down to the junior officer level, (3) exploring opportunities for joint training exercises and humanitarian operations.

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