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Profitability analysis of upstream petroleum projects

机译：上游石油项目的盈利能力分析

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This report discusses theoretical and practical aspects of valuation of exploration and development ventures in the upstream petroleum industry. The report starts with a discussion of the methodology for valuation and risk assessment. The next sections describe the structure of the model, some of the major technical assumptions, assumptions about tax related factors and possible validity problems associated with the technical assumptions and simplifications in the model. Finally, the report briefly presents some alternative methods for petroleum license valuations. The profitability of petroleum projects is assessed using a standard discounted cash flow model. The profitability of an upstream petroleum project is decided by the geological prospectivity, the amount of recoverable oil or gas, the cost structure, the fiscal regime and finally the market price for the petroleum products. The effects on profitability of the fiscal system is the most central element in the analysis. However, the model has a further range than a simple comparison of fiscal terms in different countries. The model itself is built with a maximum of flexibility. This has proved valuable when defining a new fiscal system, and when simulating changes in the fiscal system over time. The accurate definition of different tax regimes and different tax positions is a major strength. The model also handles different tax positions with respect to tax agreements, different ring fence regulations and double taxation. Thus, the analyst can assess the importance of a company's tax position with respect to the after tax profitability. 14 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

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