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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Energy Related Innovation: The Missing Link. A Revision and Integration of the Business Cycle Theories of Keynes and Schumpeter
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Energy Related Innovation: The Missing Link. A Revision and Integration of the Business Cycle Theories of Keynes and Schumpeter

机译：能源相关创新：缺失的环节。凯恩斯与熊彼特商业周期理论的修正与整合

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A theory is developed asserting that energy-induced first-cost-increasing waves of partially successful vehicle innovations cause depressions, while immediately successful cost-reducing innovations cause recessions. In a recession, cost-reducing innovations cause recessions. In a recession, cost-reducing innovations briefly drive down sales of vehicles using old technology. The reductions in cost, however, create opportunities for profit, while the success of the innovation allows other producers to copy it. Since consumer acceptance is high, sales increase and a boom follows. Depression innovations are characterized by a long sequence of partially successful first-cost increasing and operations cost decreasing vehicle innovations. Vehicle costs increase initially because of the investment needs for innovation. Uncertainty causes consumers to delay vehicle purchases. Defining sales cause increasing investment costs to be spread over fewer consumers, thus driving costs up further. The theory is contrasted with those of Keynes, Schumpeter, Kondratiev, and, of more recent vintage, Mensch and Freeman. The theory is tested quantitatively for the US during the 1783 to 1900 period, a period during which four long depressions occurred. Test results are highly consistent with the theory proposed. (ERA citation 09:009976)

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