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Verification and Validation (V&V) Methodology and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (ORC): Basis for an Investment Strategy

机译：验证和验证（V＆V）方法和信心下的定量可靠性（ORC）：投资策略的基础

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摘要

This paper represents an attempt to summarize our thoughts regarding various methods and potential guidelines for Verification and Validation (V&V) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) that we have observed within the broader V&V community or generated ourselves. Our goals are to evaluate these various methods, to apply them to computational simulation analyses, and integrate them into methods for Quantitative Certification techniques for the nuclear stockpile. We describe the critical nature of high quality analyses with quantified V&V, and the essential role of V&V and UQ at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. These contributions play an even greater role in a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) environment than ever before, when reliance on simulation in the absence of the ability to perform nuclear testing is critical.

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