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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Progress report, February 1, 1994--January 31, 1995
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Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Progress report, February 1, 1994--January 31, 1995

机译：气候模型的敏感性：过去气候模拟和观测模式的比较。进展报告，1994年2月1日至1995年1月31日

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General circulation models of the atmosphere and oceans are key to the predicition of the potential climate changes that may be induced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. Confidence in the predictions of these models can be gained by testing of these models in their ability to simulate past climates. Estimates of global mean temperature change show that the magnitude of warming since the last glacial maximum 21,000 calendar years ago match the magnitude of warming currently being predicted for the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Simulations of the climatic changes for the past 21,000 years as well as for warmer-than-present climates at 6000 and 125,000 years ago provide an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. Recognition of this opportunity has been central to our DOE research for the past decade and is now central to PMIP (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) to which our research is contributing.

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