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Personalized Decision Analysis as an Expert Elicitation Tool: An Instructive Experience in Information Security Policy

机译：个性化决策分析作为专家启发工具：信息安全政策的指导性经验

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Personalized decision analysis, or PDA, can often help an executive use expert opinion effectively in making up his mind on a policy issue. It largely failed in the case, for reasons which are instructive for future efforts. A group of experts in information security was presented with a PDA model which specified a list of policy options and criteria for choice together with illustrative numerical inputs and directions on how to quantify their own judgments about them. The effort was abandoned in the light of negative responses to the initial step. By hindsight, several lessons were learned. The options and criteria in the model were prematurely specified. The experts' first task should have been to help formulate the structure, before being asked to quantify it. Moreover, to avoid unrealistic expectations, it should have been made clearer that, within the resources available, PDA cannot do more than organize and present existing expert opinion.

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