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Market Penetration Models and the Evaluation of Gas Technology. Appendix A. Working Papers on Household Adoption of Energy-Using Appliances and Fuel

机译:市场渗透模型与燃气技术评价。附录a.家庭采用能源使用的器具和燃料的工作文件

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A critical review of existing market penetration models is carried out, examining their economic validity, their mathematical structure and their application to the modeling of the adoption of new industrial products and processes. A more comprehensive and adequate framework relating market penetration to economic and demographic variables is developed using logit equations derived from demand concepts. Results are obtained for space heaters, water heaters, and washers and dryers, demonstrating the importance of economic and demographic variables in influencing market adoption. The Resource Planning Associates' (RPA) report on the market penetration of improved gas furnaces and the Livermore Economic Modeling System's (EMS) energy network model and market share determination are reviewed. Though having many good points, the socioeconomic forces underlying the market penetration process in the RPA model, and the supply and demand determinants of the components of EMS energy network need to be developed further. The detailed analytical structures for explaining the market adoption of the alternative energy-using technologies and the estimated econometric equations developed in this study are presented in Appendix A.

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