The Use of Judgmental Probability in Decision Making

机译：判断概率在决策中的运用

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摘要

This paper discusses the use of probability to quantitatively measure experts judgments regarding uncertainty. The authors review the need for probability assessment, its proper role in the decision-making process, and an accepted method of encoding a probability distribution. They also address the questions of current government use and of validation of judgmental probability assessment through a review of several published studies and a telephone survey of several key practitioners.

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作者
Quinn, D. J. ; Matheson, J. E.;
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年度 1978
页码 1-56
总页数 56
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工业技术;
关键词
Decision making; Judgment; Air pollution; Standards; Probability theory;

机译：决策;判断;空气污染;标准;概率论;

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机译：民族文化差异对审计师判断与决策的影响：从判决与决策角度对跨文化审计研究的文献综述
2. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise) [J] . Costello Fintan, Watts Paul Cognitive Psychology . 2016,第Null期

机译：人们的条件概率判断遵循概率论（加噪声）
3. Never say 'not': Impact of negative wording in probability phrases on imprecise probability judgments [J] . Michael Smithson, David V. Budescu, Stephen B. Broomell, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning . 2012,第8期

机译：永远不要说“不”：概率短语中的否定措词对不精确的概率判断的影响
4. Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities [C] . Jose Acacio de Barros International conference on quantum interaction . 2014

机译：基于负概率的专家判断不一致的决策
5. The role of professional judgment in the application of United States accounting standards: An experimental study of the effect of professional judgment on financial reporting decisions of accountants. [D] . Rentfro, Randall Wesley. 2000

机译：专业判断在应用美国会计准则中的作用：专业判断对会计师财务报告决策的影响的实验研究。
6. What are judgment skills in health literacy? A psycho-cognitive perspective of judgment and decision-making research [O] . Silvia Riva, Alessandro Antonietti, Paola Iannello, 2015

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7. Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities [O] . J. Acacio De Barros 2016

机译：使用负概率的不一致专家判断的决策
8. Judgments of Probability and Relative Importance in a Military Decision Scenario:The Influence of Subjective and Objective Variations in Causal Factors [R] . Hamm, R. M. 1991

机译：军事决策情景中概率和相对重要性的判断：因果关系中主客观变异的影响

The Use of Judgmental Probability in Decision Making

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