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Issues in Labor Statistics: How the Business Birth/Death Model Improves Payroll Employment Estimates

机译：劳动统计中的问题：商业出生/死亡模式如何改善薪资就业估计

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Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program adjusts its sample-based estimates of industry employment for the previous year to universe employment counts derived primarily from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). CES recently announced a preliminary benchmark revision of -21,000 for its March 2008 total nonfarm employment estimate, an adjustment of less than one-tenth of one percent; the average absolute revision over the past decade is two-tenths of one percent. The preliminary 2008 benchmark calculation indicates that the CES estimate of March 2007-- March 2008 employment change (+500,000) is nearly identical to that reflected in QCEW universe counts (+479,000). Accurate CES employment estimates are made possible in part by the use of the birth/death model, an adjustment developed by BLS to account for the net employment change stemming from business births and deaths that cannot be captured in real-time by the CES sample. The birth/death adjustment has consistently resulted in a smaller benchmark revision than would have been the case if the sample alone were used to measure payroll employment change.

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年度 2008
页码 p.1-5
总页数 5
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工业技术;
关键词
Labor force; Statistical data; Businesses; Employment; Salaries; Wages; Census; Estimates; Benchmarks; Calculation methods;

机译：劳动力;统计数据;企业;就业;薪金;工资;人口普查;估计数;基准;计算方法;

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机译：高工资非正式条件下工资税对就业和工资的影响
2. New Monthly Hours and Earnings Measures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics Program [J] . Robert P. Parker Business Economics . 2007,第2期

机译：劳工统计局当前就业统计计划的新的每月工时和收入措施
3. The meaning of birth and death (in macroevolutionary birth-death models) [J] . Ezard Thomas H. G., Pearson Paul N., Aze Tracy, Biology Letters . 2012,第1期

机译：出生和死亡的含义（在宏观调度的出生死亡模式中）
4. The Rural Labor Working in Urban Areas and the Employment of Urban Work Force: Compatible or Exclusive? —based on the perspective of the improved Model of Heterogeneous Productive Factors [C] . Huang Ningyang, Wang Xiaoyin 2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会）论文集 . 2009

机译：在城市地区的农村劳动力与城市劳动力的就业：兼容还是排他？ -基于改进的非均质生产要素模型的观点
5. Data Explorations in Firm Dynamics: Firm Birth, Life, & Death through Age, Wage, Size & Labor [D] . Shaheen, Joseph A.E. 2018

机译：企业动力学中的数据探索：企业的出生，生与死，年龄，工资，规模和劳动
6. ‘Who assisted with the delivery of (NAME)?’ Issues in estimating skilled birth attendant coverage through population-based surveys and implications for improving global tracking [O] . Emma Radovich, Lenka Benova, Loveday Penn-Kekana, 2019

机译：谁协助提供（NAME）？通过基于人群的调查估算熟练接生服务的覆盖范围以及改善全球跟踪的意义
7. We analyze, in this paper, a DSGE New Keynesian model with indi- visible labor where firms may belong to two different final goods producing sectors one where wages and employment are determined in competitive labor markets and the orther where wages and employment are the result of a contractual process between unions and firms. Bargaining between firms and monopoly unions implies real wage rigidity in the model and, in turn, an endogenous trade-off between output stabilization and infla- tion stabilization. We show that the negative effect of a productivity shock on inflation and the positive effect of a cost-push shock is crucially determined by the proportion of firms that belong to the competitive sec- tor. The larger is this number, the smaller are these effects. We derive a welfare based objective function as a second order Taylor approxima- tion of the expected utility of the economy's representative agent and we analyze optimal monetary policy. We show that the larger is the num- ber of firms that belong to the competitive sector, the smaller should be the response of the nominal interest rate to exogenous productivity and cost-push shocks. If we consider, however, an instrument rule where the interest rate must react to inflationary expectations, the rule is not af- fected by the structure of the labor market. The results of the model are consistent with a well known empirical regularity in macroeconomics, i.e. that employment volatility is larger than real wage volatility. [O] . Lorenza Rossi, Fabrizio Mattesini 100

机译：在本文中，我们分析了DsGE新凯恩斯主义模型，该模型具有明显的劳动力，其中企业可能属于两个不同的最终产品生产部门，其中工资和就业是在竞争性劳动力市场中确定的，而工资和就业是由工资和就业导致的。工会和公司之间的合同过程。企业和垄断联盟之间的讨价还价意味着模型中的实际工资刚性，反过来，产出稳定和通货膨胀稳定之间的内生权衡。我们表明，生产率冲击对通货膨胀的负面影响以及成本推动冲击的积极影响，主要取决于属于竞争部门的企业比例。这个数字越大，这些效果越小。我们得出一个基于福利的目标函数作为经济代理人的预期效用的二阶泰勒近似，我们分析最优货币政策。我们表明，属于竞争性行业的企业数量越大，名义利率对外生生产率和成本推动冲击的反应就越小。但是，如果我们考虑利率必须对通胀预期作出反应的工具规则，则该规则不受劳动力市场结构的影响。该模型的结果与宏观经济学中众所周知的经验规律一致，即就业波动率大于实际工资波动率。
8. Accounting for Business Births and Deaths in CES (Current Employment Statistics): Bias versus Net Birth/Death Modeling [R] . Kropf, J., Strifas, S., Traetow, M. 2008

机译：CEs中商业出生和死亡的会计（当前就业统计）：偏差与净出生/死亡模型

Issues in Labor Statistics: How the Business Birth/Death Model Improves Payroll Employment Estimates

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