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Why Does the Change in Shares Predict Stock Returns

机译:为何股票变动预测股票收益率

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The stock of firms that issue equity has, on average, performed poorly in211u001esubsequent years, while the stock of firms that repurchase has typically done 211u001ewell. One explanation for this pattern is that firms are exploiting their 211u001esuperior knowledge about the value of their stock by buying it when it is 211u001eundervalued and selling it when it is overvalued. This paper presents supporting 211u001eevidence for this explanation of the excess returns: The change in shares 211u001eoutstanding is positively correlated with proxies for the deviation of current 211u001estock price from fundamental value; the excess returns following the change in 211u001eshares remain significant after controlling for these proxies; and the changes in 211u001eshares that can be explained by the proxies predict stock returns more powerfully 211u001ethan changes in shares explained by other reasons.

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