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首页> 外文OA文献 >Cointegrated energy : can energy company shares be used to create error correction model forecasts for the oil price? : if so, are there certain sectors within the industry that produce better forecasts?
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Cointegrated energy : can energy company shares be used to create error correction model forecasts for the oil price? : if so, are there certain sectors within the industry that produce better forecasts?

机译：联合能源：可以使用能源公司的股份来为油价创建误差校正模型预测吗？ ：如果是这样，行业中是否有某些部门可以产生更好的预测？

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摘要

Oil company shares are closely related to the oil price. This paper examines if this relationshipis strong enough to conclude that the historical spot prices for oil are cointegrated withindividual oil company share price time series, arguing that investors, who buy shares incompanies whose business is related to the exploration, production or marketing of oil and oilbased products, are forward looking. In turn this implies that the share prices embodyinformation about expected future oil prices, much like oil futures. The paper will alsoattempt to explore, if there are certain sectors within the oil industry that are moreappropriate to use as forecasting tools for oil. The paper answers whether there is acointegrated relationship between oil shares and the spot price for crude, but fails to answerthe second part because no such cointegrated relationship seems to exist.
机译：石油公司的股票与石油价格密切相关。本文研究了这种关系是否足够强，可以得出以下结论：石油历史现货价格是在各个石油公司的股价时间序列内协整的，他们认为购买股票的投资者购买的公司业务与石油，石油和天然气的勘探，生产或营销有关产品，具有前瞻性。反过来，这意味着股价体现了有关预期的未来石油价格的信息，就像石油期货一样。本文还将尝试探讨石油行业中是否有某些部门更适合用作石油的预测工具。本文回答了石油份额与原油现货价格之间是否存在协整关系，但由于似乎不存在这种协整关系，所以未能回答第二部分。

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    Schøyen Ole Husebø;

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  • 年度 2006
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