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Modelling and simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China using system dynamics

机译：基于系统动力学的中国移动商务传播建模与仿真

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Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China.
机译：当前移动商务的部署主要集中在数字内容上。但是，随着诸如蜂窝电话和个人数字助理（PDA）等便携式设备的使用增加，网络带宽增加以及更广泛的移动商务服务和交易的可用性，移动商务将迅速增长。由于预计在未来几年中来自移动商务的收入将猛增，因此战略家将注意力转移到发展中国家尚未开发的新兴市场上。了解移动商务如何在像中国这样拥有巨大市场潜力的国家中发展，对于制定有效的战略将对其发展产生积极影响至关重要。由于国家/地区的运营环境具有非线性，复杂和不确定性，因此对移动商务在一个国家的扩散进行建模是一项艰巨的任务。系统动力学方法更适合于对这样一个复杂的系统进行建模。本研究的主要目的是通过使用所涉及因素的一个子集来说明开发系统动力学模型以模拟中国移动商务扩散的过程。为了实现这一目标，中国移动商务被建模为三个子系统的相互作用，即：中国的人口进化；移动商务扩散；以及提供移动商务终端（MCT）对移动商务扩散的影响。通过确定影响子系统发展的因素以及因素之间的相互作用来对每个子系统进行建模。只要有子系统，就使用历史数据和预测数据对子系统进行校准。还通过广泛的敏感性分析对子系统进行了验证。完整的模型用于试验一些典型的中国移动商务场景，以分析移动商务趋势并设计对这些趋势产生积极影响的策略。子模型的仿真为他们控制开发的各个领域提供了有用的见识。对人口发展子模型的仿真表明，除计划生育政策外，城市化率和生活质量是重要影响中国人口动态的重要因素。对移动商务扩散子模型的仿真表明，实施移动商务的时间将极大地影响其市场扩展速度，即，实施移动商务的时间越晚，市场扩展越快。中国流动人口的存在将是启动农村市场的一大优势。但是，如果移动商务实施得太迟，那么在农村地区的渗透率将是微不足道的。对MCT提供子模型的仿真显示了向外国供应商开放中国市场的重要性，以及协调MCT设计和供应策略以及中国移动商务发展策略的重要性。这项研究是首次尝试使用System Dynamics模拟中国移动商务的扩散。所得结果表明，所开发的模型对于理解和控制未来中国移动商务的传播是有用的。

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    Wang W;

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