Cycling for transportation is an important resource to reduce urban traffic congestion, enhance personal health, reduce energy consumption, and improve air quality, and the safety of cyclists in the cities is becoming a topic of growing interest. As shown in the literature, an important number of cyclist fatalities is due to road crashes occurring at urban intersections. This study combines a probabilistic and a damage model to perform a risk analysis for the collisions between motor vehicles and bicycles in the merging and diverging conflict points of a single-lane conventional roundabout with four arms, characterized by a permanent traffic flow. The probabilistic model is based on Poisson’s law and is aimed to measure the probability of a collision between bikes and motor vehicles within the elementary unit of exposure in each conflict point of the roundabout. The damage model exploits the reaction time of a road user to avoid a collision and has been built to develop a danger classification for the conflict points. The goal of this study is then to estimate the so-called risk of collision at the roundabout, to compare different possible layouts for various traffic volumes with increasing bike flows and geometric configurations, and to identify the most effective solutions to improve safety for cyclists. The results demonstrate the risk reduction given by a roundabike compared to a standard layout where cyclists and motor vehicles share the circulatory roadway. Therefore, the study here presented could help road managers to implement mitigation strategies taking into consideration both geometric and functional constraints.
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