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Vulnerability of crops and croplands in the US Northern Plains to predicted climate change

机译：农作物和农作物在美国北部平原上的脆弱性，以预测气候变化

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The states of Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming comprise the Northern Great Plains region of the USA. The soil and water resources contained in this region have historically supported highly diverse and productive agriculture enterprises that provide a significant proportion of the food, feed, and oilseed for the nation. The region also provides ecological services that influence air, water, and soil quality along with biological diversity. Combined with livestock production and a biofuel industry, crop production forms an integrated system that can offer producers flexibility in management decisions. Projected climatic changes for this region include increasing atmospheric CO2, a longer, warmer growing season, and increased precipitation, likely received in more frequent extreme events. These changes will impact soil and water resources in the region and create opportunities and challenges for land managers. The objectives of this paper are to describe anticipated impacts of projected mid-(2050) and late-(2085) climatic changes on crop production systems in the Northern Great Plains and provide adaptation strategies that should be developed to take advantage of positive and mitigate negative changes. Projected climatic changes will influence agricultural productivity directly as well as indirectly due to changes in weed pressure, insect populations, and diseases. A warmer, longer growing season will change the crops and distribution of those crops grown within the region. An increase in the number of extreme temperature events (high daytime highs or nighttime lows) will decrease crop yields due to increased plant stress during critical pollination and grain fill periods. Adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of soil and water resources to projected climatic changes include increasing cropping intensity, reducing tillage intensity, and use of cover crops to provide surface cover to reduce erosion potential and improve nutrient and water use efficiency. Increased use of perennial forages, crop residue, and failed crops in integrated crop livestock systems will add biological diversity and provide options for converting vegetation biomass into animal protein. Socio-economic changes will need to be incorporated into adaptation strategies planning to insure that sustaining ecosystem services and meeting desired production and conservation goals is accomplished. Education and extension services will be needed to transfer adaptive knowledge in a timely manner to producers in the field.
机译：科罗拉多州，蒙大拿州，内布拉斯加州，北达科他州，南达科他州和怀俄明州的州组成了美国北大平原地区。该地区所含的土壤和水资源历史支持高度多样化，生产性农业企业，为全国提供了大量食品，饲料和油籽。该地区还提供了影响空气，水和土壤质量以及生物多样性的生态服务。结合畜牧业生产和生物燃料工业，作物生产形成了一个集成系统，可以为生产者提供管理决策的灵活性。该地区的预计气候变化包括增加大气二氧化碳，更长，较温暖的生长季节，并增加降水量，可能在更频繁的极端事件中接受。这些变化将影响该地区的土壤和水资源，为土地管理人员创造机会和挑战。本文的目标是描述预计的预期 - （2050）和北方大平原作物生产系统的气候变化的预期影响，并提供应制定的适应策略，以利用积极和减轻负面变化。预计的气候变化将直接影响农业生产力，也可能是由于杂草压力，昆虫种群和疾病的变化而间接地影响。更温暖，更长的增长季节将改变该地区种植的作物和分布这些作物。由于在关键授粉和谷物填充期内的植物应激增加，极端温度事件数量（高日间高或夜间低点）的数量增加将减少作物产量。减少土壤和水资源脆弱性的适应策略对预期的气候变化包括增加种植强度，降低耕作强度，以及覆盖作物的使用，提供表面覆盖，以减少侵蚀潜力，提高养分和水利用效率。增加使用常年饲料，作物残留物和综合作物畜牧系统的作物将增加生物多样性，并提供将植被生物量转化为动物蛋白的选择。需要纳入适应战略的社会经济变革，以确保实现维持生态系统服务和满足所需的生产和保护目标。需要教育和推广服务，以及时转移适应性知识对该领域的生产商。

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