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Probabilistic model to forecast earthquakes in the Zemmouri (Algeria) seismoactive area on the basis of moment magnitude scale distribution functions

机译:基于矩量级尺度分布函数的概率模型预测泽莫里(阿尔及利亚)地震活动区的地震

摘要

Based on the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was developed to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes in the seismoactive area of Zemmouri, Algeria. Firstly, the distributions of earthquake magnitudes M i were described using the distribution function F 0(m), which adjusts the magnitudes considered as independent random variables. Secondly, the obtained result, i.e., the distribution function F 0(m) of the variables M i was used to deduce the distribution functions G(x) and H(y) of the variables Y i = Log M 0,i and Z i = M 0,i , where (Y i)i and (Z i)i are independent. Thirdly, some forecast for moments of the future earthquakes in the studied area is given
机译:基于弯矩震级量表,建立了概率模型来预测阿尔及利亚Zemmouri地震活跃地区发生强地震的发生。首先,使用分布函数F 0(m)描述了地震震级M i的分布,该函数调整了被视为独立随机变量的震级。其次,使用获得的结果,即变量M i的分布函数F 0(m)来推导变量Y i = Log M 0,i和Z的分布函数G(x)和H(y)。 i = M 0,i,其中(Y i)i和(Z i)i是独立的。第三,给出了研究区域未来地震时刻的一些预测。

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